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"content": "Mr. Speaker, Sir, this is a normal process recommended by the UN principles and recommendations for census taking, and is often undertaken after the release of preliminary results in all counties prior to the release of the final official results. This process, referred to as “smoothing of figures,” has given the new adjusted total population of 37,724,850 as per 2009, giving an overall difference of 885,247 compared to the preliminary results. The preliminary results of 2009 population and housing census of eight districts in northern Kenya were canceled due to serious inconsistencies noted in certain key indicators. Some of these inconsistencies detected included growth rates that could not be explained, enumerated figures falling way above the projected ones based on previous census, the age and sex deviation from the norms, significant growth observed in the household size without corresponding growth in the number of households, among others. Mr. Speaker, Sir, the conduct of the census was in line with the Statistics Act No.4 of 2006, Section 17 which authorizes the Minister in charge of statistics to call for a census, while the cancellation of the figures was in line with Section 23 of the Act, which underscores the principles to be followed when releasing data to the public. The nullification of the census results for eight districts in northern Kenya triggered a court case, High Court Civil Application No.309 of 2010 at Nairobi, where an order was issued prohibiting the use of any census data other than the public data relating to Lagdera, Mandera East, Mandera Central, Mandera West, Wajir East, Turkana North, Turkana South and Turkana Central constituencies. This order also implied that the same public population and housing census results be used in the determination of boundary review and or delimitation of new boundaries. Mr. Speaker, Sir, as the House is aware, the court has now ruled against the Government’s decision to nullify the census results of the eight affected districts, arguing that the Minister had no power to do so. The ruling of the court is to the effect that the preliminary population figures be upheld but be subject to democratic analysis. The Government was dissatisfied with the ruling and the Attorney-General has filed a notice of appeal against the said ruling as the reasons for cancelling the said results are still valid. Since the announced preliminary results were only provisional, further analysis has since been carried out using international demographic instruments and rationalistion of the figures has now been done to produce the final official 2009 population and housing census data. It is noteworthy that during this process, some variances were found in other areas that had not been cancelled, which have been rationalized as well. The evaluation process carried out was meant to get the accuracy of the data and help inform the users on the level of reliability of indicators generated. This standard practice has been carried out in all the previous census in the country. Following this exercise, the census results have been smoothened for all provinces. The figures for the eight cancelled population figures have, therefore, since been smoothened as follows: Mandera West, preliminary results was 319,775. The smoothened one is now 191,721, giving a difference of 128,054. Turkana Central – the preliminary was 254,606 and the smoothened one is 254,423 giving a difference of 183. Lagdera – preliminary was 245,123, smoothened, 147,174, giving a difference of 97,949. Mandera Central – preliminary 417,294, smoothened 251,267, giving a difference of 166,027. Wajir East – 224,418 preliminary, smoothened 135,832, giving a difference of 88,586. Mandera East, preliminary, 288,687, smoothened 175,977 giving a difference of 174,710. Turkana North, 374,414 preliminary, smoothened 274,238. Turkana South, preliminary 226,379, smoothened 226,330, a difference of 49. Mr. Speaker, Sir, from the smoothened information, it is clear that northern eastern areas had a big variance from the preliminary data, with a difference of 916,892, while the affected areas show a difference of 593,733. What is the impact? As hon. Members are aware, the court order prohibited the use of any census data relating to eight affected constituencies other than the public 2009 population and housing census results in determination of boundary review and delimitation of new boundaries. As the House is also aware, the court on 7th February 2012 ruled in favour of the applicants. Following the court order then, the Government had no choice but to use the 2009 preliminary population and housing census in allocating CDF and other devolved funds. Indeed, tentative CDF allocations for 2011/2012, which I have presented to this House in August 2011are based on the provisional census results. The same data was forwarded to the Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), and could have been used in determination of boundary review and delimitation of new boundaries and in the creation of 80 new constituencies; it could also have been used in the work of the CRA to make county allocations. Mr. Speaker, Sir, in conclusion, the Government’s position has been to undertake a repeat census for the affected areas to obtain credible data. In fact, this process would have been undertaken were it not for the court order. The Ministry sought the Treasury’s assistance for this purpose and had Kshs400 million allocated for the repeat census in the affected areas. Meanwhile, the Government will make use of the smoothened figures which will soon be published as adjusted final 2001 population data for all planning purposes. The court ruling is also agreeable to the adjustment of the figures. These are the figures that should, ideally, be used in determining any additional constituencies that will be created before the next General Election. In the same respect, the confirmed final 2011/2012 allocation for Constituency Development Fund as well as Revenue Allocation under the Devolved Government by the Commission for Revenue Allocation (CRA) should be based on the rationalized population figures."
}