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"id": 48133,
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"speaker_name": "Mr. Mututho",
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"legal_name": "John Michael Njenga Mututho",
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"content": "Thank you, Mr. Temporary Deputy Speaker, Sir. I want to, first and foremost, thank Mr. Jamleck Kamau for his well thought out Motion. I want at the onset, to say that opinion polls in all countries that we consider western, civilized or first world, are an integral part of the election laws of that country. It is so important that they thought it necessary to put it into the statutes of that particular country. I will be going to that shortly and referring to Canada, Singapore, Russia, the United Kingdom and other countries that we consider generally to be fair, in the way they promote democratization through opinions. Mr. Temporary Deputy Speaker, Sir, what is common in our opinion polls is not the inherent error of stating who is likely to win. They lack one very critical and crucial ingredient; that is the sponsor of that particular opinion poll. In all the laws that I have studied, they all insist that we must state the methodology and the sponsor. Unless we do so, then we have a problem. I may, for instance, because I am vying for Naivasha, decide to sponsor an opinion poll which is geared towards favouring me because of my politics. In such a case, that opinion poll should not be published. I want to look at Section 3.7 of the Canadian Electoral Laws, and with your indulgence, hon. Members, I will read for you so that you understand what they really feel about opinion polls. Section 326(1)States as follows:- âThe first person who transmits the results of an election survey other than a survey that is described in Section 327 to the public during the election period and any person who transmits them to the public within 24 hours after they are first transmitted to the public must provide the following together with the results:- (a) The name of the sponsor of the survey. (b) The name of the person or organization that conducted the survey. (d) The date at which the period during which the survey was conducted. (d) The population from which the sample of respondents was drawn. (e) The number of people who were contacted to participate in the survey and, if applicable, the margin of error in respect to the data obtained.â Mr. Temporary Deputy Speaker, Sir, what we are saying in essence is that whoever plans to have an opinion poll must also be bold enough to identify himself/herself or the organization where he comes from. When releasing such results, he should also be able to tell us in a language we can understand whether his âKenyaâ means âcentral Kenya.â We have in the past seen politicians whom, when you talk of Kenya they only see their area. If their area is not affected, then that is not their country. If such people conducted any opinion poll, such opinion polls will be domiciled there because they are likely to give very misleading results. That, perhaps, might explain why, in the Wikileaks which everybody was talking about, they said that opinion polls and whatever they projected was not accurate. This inaccuracy has been reported severally all over the world. That is why there is need to have regulation. Perhaps, we need to note that some of the people who are very respected broadcasters like BBC have gone a step ahead and improved on already existing British laws on how you conduct a survey. Mr. Temporary Deputy Speaker, Sir, I want to say that the BBC observed in their editorial policy and had this to say:- âThe absence of legislative prohibition has been explained by the British media commitment to self regulation and impartiality. The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) for example, has internal guidelines on reporting opinion polls that have reportedly been effective for a number of years.â What I am trying to say here is that the thing is so sensitive that such respectable organizations like CNN, BBC and other organizations in Singapore and Russia, have found it necessary to have very candid regulations on how they handle the opinion polls. If you look at the case for the BBC, they prohibit online opinion polls. We have never heard the BBC call upon people to come and give their opinion. We know in Kenya that only four families own the media here. The four families can meet over a cup of tea and decide that the most popular candidate is not popular anymore and tomorrow they start giving it another way. So, generally, they will not allow opinion polls through online transmission or otherwise. They also say that a large sample does not necessarily mean accuracy. It cannot be a remedy for inaccuracy. I may wish, and please you will excuse me, I am not being tribal, but I will talk about the Kikuyus in this country. You may wish to take a population of 2 million people across Kenya and you are asking them who is the likely presidential candidate. You conveniently go to pockets where there are Kikuyu populations and you get a very big sample. What result do you get? About 90 per cent will say a Kikuyu president. That is not the opinion of Kenyans. The methodology so selected must be scientific. It must be non-biased. It must have a legal framework for regulating that kind of thing. The other point is that the people who sit and give the results of that opinion poll should not be limited to just two people like we normally see in the television every now and then. There is an elderly gentleman and a young lady who speak and they will describe Kenya more than the Kenyans themselves. But I guess he is a Kenyan. Maybe he has been here for 40 years. When you look at that kind of thing, it sways peopleâs thinking and this can be a recipe for disaster."
}